Transient climate simulation forced by natural and anthropogenic climate forcings

摘要: Numerical experiments have been carried Out with a two-dimensional sector-averaged global climate model coupled to diffusive ocean in order assess the potential impact of four hypothesized mechanisms decadal century-scale variability, both natural and anthropogenically induced: (1) solar variability: (2) variability volcanic aerosol loading atmosphere (3) anthropogenic increase Of sulphate aerosols' concentration: (4) greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results suggest that neither individual responses nor combined or forcings allow one reproduce all recorded major temperature fluctuations since latter half 19th century. They show these variations are result naturally driven effects industrialization. By contrast, dominant cause decade-to-century-scale 21st Century is likely be changes atmospheric trace-as Indeed, when solar, volcanic, tropospheric aerosols used our extended into future, they unable counter expected warming. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.