Major disasters in modern economies: an input-output based approach at modelling imbalances and disproportions

摘要: It seems that large-scale disasters are becoming an inevitable part of modern societies. Major calamities such as earthquakes, typhoons, and tsunamis endangering the lives many people their possessions all over world. Some most obvious questions to address are: How vulnerable economies extreme events? And: In which way should societies prepare themselves deal with adversities on a grand scale? A disaster is multi-faceted phenomenon. this study, we concentrate economic aspects disaster. We distinctions between direct indirect costs, problems double counting stocks flows, issues related temporal spatial dimensions and, more general, preparedness (mitigation adaptation) response (resilience). discuss modelling issues, develop special type Input-Output model for addressing major questions. propose three-step procedure in policy. The first step consists thinking about remaining productive capacity after shock novel way; second involves strategic return equilibrium catastrophe; third one includes weighing ex-ante against expected costs. position our approach background recent developments Dutch water management policy, where signal change flood threats. country faces new dilemmas, has strike balance losses future growth.