Effect of baseline meteorological data selection on hydrological modelling of climate change scenarios

摘要: Summary This study evaluates how differences in hydrological model parameterisation resulting from the choice of gridded global precipitation data sets and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) equations affects simulated climate change impacts, using north western Himalayan Beas river catchment as a case study. Six combinations baseline (the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Asian Precipitation – Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation Water Resources (APHRODITE)) Reference Evapotranspiration differing complexity requirements (Penman–Monteith, Hargreaves–Samani Priestley–Taylor) were used calibration HySim model. Although six validated models had similar historical performance (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) 0.64 to 0.70), impact response surfaces derived scenario neutral approach demonstrated significant deviations models’ responses changes future annual temperature. For example, Q10 varies between −6.5% −11.5% driest coolest simulation +79% +118% wettest hottest among models. The results demonstrate that meteorological choices made construction significantly condition magnitude impacts change, with important implications for design.