Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation: Findings from a National Cluster Sample Survey by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study

作者: Amy Hagopian , Abraham D Flaxman , Tim K Takaro , Sahar A Esa Al Shatari , Julie Rajaratnam

DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PMED.1001533

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摘要: Background Previous estimates of mortality in Iraq attributable to the 2003 invasion have been heterogeneous and controversial, none were produced after 2006. The purpose this research was estimate direct indirect deaths war between 2011. Methods Findings We conducted a survey 2,000 randomly selected households throughout Iraq, using two-stage cluster sampling method ensure sample nationally representative. We asked every household head about births since 2001, all adults among their siblings. used secondary data sources correct for out-migration. From March 1, 2003, June 30, 2011, crude death rate 4.55 per 1,000 person-years (95% uncertainty interval 3.74–5.27), more than 0.5 times higher during 26-mo period preceding war, resulting approximately 405,000 48,000–751,000) excess conflict. Among adults, risk rose 0.7 women 2.9 men pre-war (January February 28, 2003) peak (2005–2006). that 60% directly violence, with rest associated collapse infrastructure other indirect, but war-related, causes. rates emigrants. Those suggest we missed at least 55,000 would reported by had remained behind which instead migrated away. Only 24 refused participate study. An additional five not interviewed because hostile or threatening behavior, 98.55% response rate. reliance on outdated census long recall required participants are limitations our study. Conclusions Beyond expected rates, most increases can be attributed third causes (such as from failures health, sanitation, transportation, communication, systems). Approximately half million could war. Please see later article Editors' Summary

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