Intensity forecast experiment of hurricane Rita (2005) with a cloud-resolving, coupled hurricane - ocean modelling system

摘要: A cloud-resolving, coupled hurricane-ocean modelling system is developed under the Earth System Modeling Framework using state-of-the-art numerical forecasting models of atmosphere and ocean. With this system, importance coupling to an eddy-resolving ocean model high resolution atmospheric for prediction intensity change hurricane Rita (2005) demonstrated through a set experiments. The erroneous intensification in uncoupled experiments could be eliminated when taking account negative feedback sea-surface temperature cooling. Moreover, deepening rate becomes larger with higher model. Nevertheless, horizontal grid spacing at least less than ∼4 km required order predict rapid changes fully experiment. This strong dependence found arise from potential interaction between internal processes Rita, thus indicating that both are indispensable future improvement prediction. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society