Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models

摘要: High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based models, but their ability represent effects high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble nine models reproduces observed average responses US maize, soybean wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize by up 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, weak. This supports hypothesis water stress induced causes decline. For a negative response is neither nor historical conditions, since critical rarely exceeded during growing season. In future, modelled decline for all three crops at >30 °C. Elevated CO2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, contrast irrigation.