Freshwater resources under success and failure of the Paris climate agreement

摘要: Abstract. Population growth will in many regions increase the pressure on water resources and likely number of people affected by scarcity. In parallel, global warming causes hydrological changes which affect freshwater supply for human use in many regions. This study estimates exposure future population to severe hydrological relevant from a resource perspective at different levels of global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial level ( ΔTglob ). The analysis is complemented an assessment scarcity that would occur without additional climate change due alone; this done identify the population groups are faced with particularly high adaptation challenges. The results analysed context success and failure implementing Paris Agreement evaluate how mitigation can reduce people exposed severe change. The results show without mitigation efforts, year 2100 about 4.9 billion people SSP2 scenario would more likely than not be exposed change, about 2.1 billion them challenges to already prevailing Limiting warming 2  ∘ C successful implementation Paris Agreement strongly these numbers 615 million and 290 million, respectively. At regional scale, substantial water-related risks remain C, more 12 % Latin America Middle East and north Africa region. Constraining 1.5  would limit share 5 %