Avoiding coral reef functional collapse requires local and global action

摘要: oral reefs face multiple anthropogenic threats, from pollution and overfishing to the dual effects of greenhouse gas emissions: rising sea temperature ocean acidification [1]. While abundance coral has declined in recent decades [2, 3], implications for humanity are difficult quantify because they depend on ecosystem function rather than corals themselves. Most reef functions services founded ability maintain their three-dimensional structure through net carbonate accumulation [4]. Coral growth only constitutes part a reef's budget; bioerosion processes influential determining balance between structural disintegration [5, 6]. Here, we combine ecological models with budgets drive dynamics Caribbean latest generation climate models. Budget reconstructions using documented perturbations shallow (6-10 m) forereefs toward an increasingly fragile balance. We then projected 2080 contrasted benefits local conservation global action change. Local management fisheries (specifically, no-take marine reserves) watershed can delay loss by at least decade under "business-as-usual" rises emissions. However, must be combined low-carbon economy prevent degradation structures associated services.