Changing temperature and precipitation extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region: an analysis of CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and projections

摘要: The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region epitomizes a geographic where cryospheric processes coupled with hydrological regimes are under threat owing to warming climate and shifts in extremes. In this study, we analyse global models the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) 5 (CMIP5) archives investigate qualitative aspects of change trends temperature precipitation indices. Specifically, examine evaluate multi-model, multi-scenario projections seven extreme indices over eastern Himalaya (EH) western Himalaya-Karakoram (WH) regions for 21st century. Density distribution plots observed meteorological stations gridded also analysed, which indicate significant negative annual number frost days increasing warm nights EH 1960-2000 period. Multi-model average (MMA) additionally continued towards more conditions consistent warmer, wetter climate. Precipitation increased mean frequent rainfall during monsoon season region, cold WH region. Time series all MMA exhibit 1901-2099 By comparison, time show decreases intra-annual range total days, as well increases nights. general, these future point summertime temperatures modifications across both regions.