摘要: ab st ract . How should probabilities be interpreted in causal models the social and health sciences? In this paper we take a step towards answering question by investigating case of cancer epidemiology arguing that objective Bayesian interpretation is most appropriate domain. After introducing problem §1 giving an overview analysis sciences §2, §3 present study some detail. §4 discuss importance correctly interpreting probability. Then, §5, put forward desiderata probability ought to satisfy; two interpretations come out well according these desiderata. §6 go further showing how full-blown objectivity Bayesianism needed for practice treatment. Finally ramifications conclusion §7.
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