Modelling the effects of climate change on the risk of invasion by alien squirrels

摘要: Assessing invasion risk by alien organisms implies evaluating the likelihood of successful establishment and spread once they are accidentally or deliberately introduced. The importance implementing accurate risk–assessment procedures is further stressed evidence that ongoing climate change can promote processes, from initial introduction through spread. Although squirrels considered powerful invaders with well–documented negative impacts on biodiversity human activities, there a noticeable gap comprehensive investigations specifically focused this group, especially as far effect worldwide concerned. In study we predicted current 2070 potential distributions eight squirrel species SDM–based framework, also detecting hotspots how these could be modified in 2070. SDM to potentially occur large areas (12.12% 39.23% mainland), 70 129 countries vulnerable invasion. Model projections over scenarios five seven undergoing an increase their future distribution non–native ranges. Current were southeastern Asia, northeastern Australia, tropical Africa South America, well Central North America. Projections showed most remain substantially stable terms number invasive species, regardless scenario. relevant increase/reduction extent invasiveness for under severe scenarios. We emphasize strong species–specific response change, which affect making them less competitive, therefore leading retreat invaded