Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

摘要: Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to Neapolitan area. In order assess hazards related tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative past activity: high-magnitude event similar 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, medium-magnitude event, ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 and low-magnitude Averno 2 eruption. The deposits were reconstructed using HAZMAP computational model, which based on semi-analytical solution two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. input parameters into such as total erupted mass, column height, bulk grain-size components distribution, obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens thousands simulations statistical set wind profiles, from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative scenarios, constructed several loads, 200, 300 400 kg/m2. These provide hazard assessment roof collapses due loading that can be used risk mitigation plans in