Effect of changing size and composition of a crop model ensemble on impact and adaptation response surfaces

摘要: Climate change is expected to generate severe impacts in cropping systems and food production. Because of that, successful local adaptation needed.Impact response surfaces (IRSs) are tools that allow assessing responses studied variables (yields) systematic changes two explanatory (e.g. precipitation, P, temperature, T). Adaptation (ARSs) show the or efficiencies measures within same T P space. To quantify some important aspects uncertainties model simulations, use an ensemble crop simulation models recommended. Yet properties climate ensembles have been analyzed depth, this not case for ensembles.Changes composition size can occur when extended include new members, excluded members giving implausible results). These make difference on results both impact and/or simulations affect conclusions management recommendations made based them.For study we utilizing from were applied simulate wheat growth Lleida, northwest Spain. The outputs used create IRSs ARSs, analyze yield a range perturbations, under different CO2 levels.The objective establish methodology effects changing assessment. developed here allows measuring members' selection central tendency ARSs main features analysis robustness conclusions.