A multi-level climate club with national and sub-national members: Theory and application to US states

摘要: The minilateral approach of a climate club countries has been suggested as an intermediate phase in transition towards global agreement that enforces national policies through harmonization. To garner critical mass, we propose extended configuration including sub-national states or provinces, resulting multi-level club. This would allow considerable contributions from important emitters like the US to be brought on board, relevant given its intended withdrawal Paris Agreement. We elaborate this idea and clarify potential roles participants at distinct levels. concept is operationalized by developing method for identifying suitable entities each level uses set likelihood-of-involvement indicators capturing existing carbon dependence, public opinion, government policy coalition membership. Application identifies subset seven highest emitting representing 21% emissions. rises 51% assuming China, dominant emitter, could enticed into group. Given involvement remains unlikely now, illustrate selection states. Here, initial group 21 appear members, jointly accounting 36% An additional group, further 34% emissions, are potentially receptive enticement via trade dependencies four key identified within members. Accordingly, some 70% 11% totals, may subject combination these pathways. While implementation such requires various political legal hurdles overcome, ongoing threat change inadequacies Agreement suggest novel solutions kind deserve serious attention scientists politicians.