Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

摘要: Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural anthropogenic LULC changes (land use land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, directly influenced spatial organization composition of landscapes. For past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities rural population. Stakeholders, better anticipate future changes, need spatially temporally explicit models identify areas at risk change possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios simulation model assess where may occur Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical trends range socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate topographical properties, regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected face strong abandonment, regardless scenario conditions. Overall, high rates associated with administrative productivity is highly dependent drivers climatic environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) profitability. combination results for four allows assessments encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) most probable. assessment intends provide insight into potential development help sensitive guide decision makers their management decisions.