A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme to investigate the association between transmission rate of COVID-19 and meteorological factors on plains in China.

摘要: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in Hubei province, China, has become a pandemic. However, data regarding the effects of meteorological factors on its transmission are limited and inconsistent. A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme was developed to investigate association between scaled rate (STR) COVID-19 parameters 20 provinces/municipalities located plains China. We obtained information scale population migrated from Wuhan, world epicentre outbreak, into study using mobile-phone positioning system big techniques. highest STRs were found densely populated metropolitan areas cold provinces north-eastern Population density had non-linear relationship with spread (linearity index, 0.9). Among various factors, only temperature significantly associated STR after controlling for effect density. negative exponential identified (correlation coefficient, -0.56; 99% confidence level). increased substantially as China decreased below 0 °C (the ranged 3.5 12.3 when -9.41 °C -13.87 °C), whilst showed less dependence temperate weather conditions 1.21 ± 0.57 above 0 °C). Therefore, higher linearly whereas lower (<0 °C) exponentially an COVID-19. These findings suggest that mitigation and/or regions will be great challenge.