Olive trees as bio-indicators of climate evolution in the Mediterranean Basin
作者： Marco Moriondo , Giacomo Trombi , Roberto Ferrise , Giada Brandani , Camilla Dibari
DOI: 10.1111/GEB.12061
关键词:
摘要: Aim This paper aims to project areas of olive cultivation into future scenarios. Accordingly, we first asked the question whether global circulation models (GCMs) are able reproduce past climatic conditions and used historical ranges as a palaeoclimate proxy. Location The Mediterranean basin. Methods We an ecological model, calibrated validated for modern times, test reliability general model (NCAR-CSM GCM) in reproducing tree inferred from literature, archaeo-botanical investigations fossil pollen analyses. Results The re-constructions growing areas, obtained Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 1200-1300 AD) Little Ice Age (LIA, 1600-1700 by coupling outputs NCAR-CSM were agreement those observed. Simulations time-windows showed that northwards expansion species is expected occur 2100. Main conclusions These results demonstrate can provide accurate reconstruction climate with sensitive forcing factors thus, it more likely give reliable projections future. Additionally, warming drying coming decades may determine changes across basin unprecedented.
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