Microsimulation of life-stage transitions and residential location transitions within a life-oriented integrated urban modeling system

摘要: Abstract This paper presents microsimulation of life-stage transitions and residential location transition processes within a life-oriented agent-based integrated Transport Land Use Energy (iTLE) modeling system. The iTLE assumes that individuals households are the agents, parcels objects. It is conceptualized following life-course perspectives theories to address evolution multi-domain decision interactions over agents. Residential simulated as two-stage process mobility, choice. Life-stage simulation includes aging, death, birth, out-migration, in-migration, household formation. implemented at yearly time-step from 2006 2021 for Halifax, Canada. A 100% synthetic population generated base year 2006, which shows SRMSE value 0.37 APE measures less than 5% 89% DAs. results validated with 2011 Census information. validation suggest generates reasonably satisfactory estimates. For example, around 52% DAs show an 30%, 37% difference in number ±50. predicted regarding spatio-temporal Halifax suggests increase 14% compared 2007. Younger residing closer CBD be more frequent movers older farther away CBD. Higher proportions locations 25 km years. Proportion these high density neighborhoods 68% 2007 71% 2021. In 2021, higher single person urban core. Density variable skewed towards suburban composition changes through marriage child birth.