Risk analysis and full-cycle probabilistic modelling of prospects: a prototype system developed for the Norwegian shelf

摘要: A probabilistic modelling methodology for reserves, engineering and economic risk analysis was developed the evaluation of exploratory prospects on Norwegian shelf. The utilizes a Monte Carlo-type parameter-sampling technique to derive versus reserves net present value probability distributions; these provide standard decision criteria prospect. system includes an that integrates, where possible, historical success ratio with conventional factors. Reserves are estimated by sampling distributions usual reservoir parameters. After reserve is calculated, broad suite parameters sampled assuming produced. resulting cash flow determined based costs revenue, calculated. This process repeated each iteration generated. Carlo simulation completed, modified include failure cases (dry hole), total mean distribution measure risked (i.e., tree solution)