Testing the effectiveness of capture mark recapture population estimation techniques using a computer simulation with known population size

摘要: Estimation of small mammal population sizes is important for monitoring ecosystem condition and conservation. Here, we test the accuracy standard methods size estimation using Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) on a simulated agents. The use computer simulation allows complete control behaviors, thereby avoiding assumptions that may be violated in real populations. We find recommended protocol CMR sampling, uniformly distributed traps, consistently overestimates by as much 100% when studies are conducted over only two trapping periods. More than 20 periods required before this method, or placing traps randomly, gives an accurate (i.e., within 95% confidence limit actual value). Non-random runways used mammals, produces most accurate, least variable, estimates population. However, show around 10 still to produce estimate method. Given populations do not comply with ‘ideal’ made CMR, suggest based fundamentally flawed, recommend protocols need revising.