Quantification of the effect of control strategies on classical swine fever epidemics.

摘要: Emergency vaccination during an epidemic of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) has become a serious option because the ethical problems strategies with massive culling and availability marker vaccine that reduces transmission. Here we present model between-herd CSFV transmission, which quantifies effect control without vaccination. We estimate parameters from data Dutch 1997/1998. With model, set is compared, consisting five measures in several combinations. Consequently, following general requirements successful can be formulated. First, to achieve extinction epidemic, transmission through transport should prevented indirect i.e. all not animal contacts, at least halved, either by or susceptible pig population. Second, minimize size duration met quickly reduced far more than half. Although origin let fact only applicable for south-eastern part Netherlands, it argued epidemics other areas will need stricter strategies.