Solar flare evolution model for operational users

摘要: A solar flare evolution prediction model has been developed and placed into operations to mitigate flare-related risks operational systems. The GOES 0.1-0.8 nm X-ray background flux is first determined the residual used create a index value. useful for determining relative characteristics of separate from its background, comparison with other flares, initiation. Within five minutes initiation, predicts rise, timing magnitude peak fluxes, decay half maximum, termination at levels. Based on rise time, quantitatively categorized as small, medium, or large based absolute value this enables selection shape. Using convolution Gaussian quadratic functions modeled flare, integral area (magnitude duration) quantifies integrated energy content which can be related flare’s geoeffectiveness. description development presented. system behind it compliant ISO 21348 “Process Determining Solar Irradiances.”