Long-term electricity consumption forecasting based on expert prediction and fuzzy Bayesian theory
作者： Lei Tang , Xifan Wang , Xiuli Wang , Chengcheng Shao , Shiyu Liu
DOI: 10.1016/J.ENERGY.2018.10.073
关键词:
摘要: Abstract Long-term electricity consumption (EC) forecasting is a very important part for the expansion planning of power system. Instead point forecasting, based on fuzzy Bayesian theory and expert prediction, novel long-term probability model proposed to predict Chinese per-capita (PEC) its variation interval over period 2010–2030. The special structure can improve reliability accuracy prediction through econometric methodology. It contains three components: relation matrix, prior formula. To contend with uncertainty, implemented combine advantages expert's experience other time-based methods from perspective probability. With utilization technique, multiple effects influencing factors (IFs) PEC be expressed as matrix. rule results obey long-run equilibrium relationship natural evolution thorough calibration. demonstrate efficiency applicability, result this method compared that 6 approaches 4 agencies. case study shows methodology has higher adaptability.
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