Historical and future land use effects on N2O and NO emissions using an ensemble modeling approach: Costa Rica's Caribbean lowlands as an example

摘要: [1] The humid tropical zone is a major source area for N2O and NO emissions to the atmosphere. Local emission rates vary widely with local conditions, particularly land use practices which swiftly change expanding settlement changing market conditions. The combination of wide variation in rapidly make regional estimation future prediction biogenic trace gas difficult. This study estimates contemporary, historical, from 0.5 million ha northeastern Costa Rica, well-documented region wet tropics undergoing rapid agricultural development. Estimates were derived by linking spatially distributed environmental data an ecosystem simulation model ensemble approach that incorporates variance covariance driving variables. Results include measures emissions. formation aging pastures forest provided most past temporal flux this region; changes will be controlled degree nitrogen fertilizer application extent intensively managed croplands.