Has the advancing onset of spring vegetation green‐up slowed down or changed abruptly over the last three decades?

摘要: Aim Change in spring phenology is a sensitive indicator of ecosystem response to climate change, and exerts first-order control on the carbon hydrological cycles. The start season (SOS) can be estimated from satellite data using different spatiotemporal scales, sets algorithms. To address impacts these differences trends SOS, Bayesian analysis applied investigate rate SOS advance whether that has slowed down or changed abruptly over last three decades. Location 30°‐75° N Northern Hemisphere. Methods We four algorithms (AVHRR, Terra-MODIS SPOT) obtain an ensemble estimates. A was test hypotheses trends. Results Over period 1982‐2011, likely (74%) have experienced significant best described by linear trend (−1.4 ± 0.6 days decade −1 ). At hemispheric continental deceleration abrupt changes are unlikely (< 30%) occurred. Trend restricted suggests no since 2000. This lack explained large interannual variations uncertainties extraction, context short-term decadal-period analysis. Spatial analyses show could parts western North America, Canada Siberia. Main conclusions at scale regional scale, due winter chilling fire regimes. Trends derived satellites were within extraction.