Evaluation of the CONCEPTS Sea Ice Forecasts

摘要: With the ever-increasing interest in resource exploitation and marine transport Arctic there is a mounting need for improved knowledge about current future environmental conditions Arctic. This being addressed Canada by tri-ministerial initiative called Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems (CONCEPTS) among Environment (EC), Fisheries Oceans (DFO), Department National Defence (DND). CONCEPTS, close collaboration with French operational oceanographic centre Mercator-Ocean, providing framework research operations on coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean prediction Canada. activity CONCEPTS based coupling atmospheric GEM model Mercator ice-ocean forecasting system Nucleus European Modelling Ocean (NEMO) model. The data assimilation multi-variate reduced-order Extended Kalman Filter that assimilates sea level anomaly, surface temperature (SST) situ salinity data. Using system, weekly 1/4° resolution global 10-day iceocean forecasts are now produced as well daily at 1/12° Northwest Atlantic. Ice fields initialized using 3D variational (3DVAR) ice analysis manual analyses from Service (CIS), Radarsat AMSR-E In addition, high-resolution regional also under development. 3DVAR 5km North American grid (including western Arctic) produces 48hr forecasts. Here, authors provide an overview these activities, summarize results to date, discuss plans new systems.