Predicting Geographic Variation in Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, Colombia

摘要: Approximately 6,000 cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis are reported annually in Colombia, a greater than twofold increase since the 1980s. Such reports certainly underestimate true incidence, and their geographic distribution is likely biased by local health service effectiveness. We investigated how well freely available environmental data explain among 1,079 municipalities. For each municipality, unique predictive logistic regression model was derived from association remaining municipalities between elevation, land cover (preclassified maps satellite images), or both, odds at least one case being reported. Land had power elevation; using both datasets improved accuracy. Fitting separate models to different ecologic zones, reflecting transmission cycle diversity, enhanced accuracy predictions. measures that can be directly related disease control decisions show results vary, depending on threshold selected for predicting disease-positive municipality. The identify areas where most underreported.