The Timing of Divorce: Predicting When a Couple Will Divorce Over a 14-Year Period

摘要: This paper investigates the predictability of divorce in a long-term, prospective longitudinal study. Past research has indicated that 2 periods can be considered most critical for survival marriages: (a) first 7 years marriage, during which half all divorces are known to occur, and (b) period child reaches 14 age, been suggested as low point marital satisfaction life course. In present study, interaction variables at Time 1 (both conflict an events-of-the-day discussion following separation spouses least 8 hours) noninteractive were used predict divorcing both early later marriage. A different set predicted than divorcing. Negative affect divorcing, but it did not By contrast, lack positive discussions Prediction was possible over 14-year study with model included satisfaction, thoughts dissolution, affective conversations. The 93% accuracy.