A new method to estimate the temperature-CVD mortality relationship

摘要: Few detailed, individual-focused studies have researched the added effect of temperature on cardiovascular disease (CVD), particularly in China. Moreover, no prior explored exposure-response relationship among all populations and different sub-sociodemographic groups. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to evaluate adverse health effects CVD mortality for groups (by age, sex, educational level, living arrangement, occupation) Beijing. Based relationships, firstly, we proposed a new (COCKTAIL, Code Of Climate Key To An Ill) revealing split-and-merge relationships temperature-CVD curve. This method could be used apply deaths studied area forecast same future. Secondly, this is most detailed study analyze between subgroups existing researches developed developing countries. We found that cold (at − 14 °C) risk factor people with low socioeconomic status, especially single (including unmarried, divorced, widowed), indoor workers, education, compared minimum temperature, cumulative increase 3.9 (80%CI, 2.9–5.4), 3.8 2.8–5.1), 4.5 3.1–6.3) times respectively. Meanwhile, hot 35 °C) death, 2.6 2.0–3.4) females, 3.1 2.4–4.2) people. The varying vulnerability terms various may assist governments preparing resources taking measures prevent or reduce temperature-related deaths.