Comparative analysis on the effects of the Asian and global financial crises on precious metal markets

作者: Lucía Morales , Bernadette Andreosso-O’Callaghan

DOI: 10.1016/J.RIBAF.2011.01.004

关键词:

摘要: Abstract The global financial crisis has vigorously struck major markets around the world, in particular developed economies since they have suffered most. However, some commodity markets, and precious metal seem to be unscathed by this downturn. This paper investigates therefore nature of volatility spillovers between returns over fifteen years (1995–2010 period) with attention being focused on these markets’ behavior during Asian crises. Daily closing values for metals are analyzed. In particular, variables under study US$/Troy ounce gold, London Free Market Platinum price ounce, Palladium once, Zurich silver US$/kg. main sample is divided into a number sub periods, prior to, after crisis. aim division provide wide deep analysis event how reacted times market instability. addition, also looks at effects from August 2007 November 2010 using GARCH EGARCH modeling. results show that there clear evidence persistence returns, characteristic shared as it been demonstrated extensively existing literature area. terms spillover effects, findings running bidirectional way periods; not affected crises, exception tends generate all other markets. little case generating any kind influence gold market. On hand, two episodes. Finally, asymmetric negative news/information stronger impact than positive news, again exhibited

参考文章(21)
Paolo Zagaglia, Fabrizio Spargoli, The Comovements between Futures Markets for Crude Oil: Evidence from a Structural GARCH Model Research Papers in Economics. ,(2007)
Terence C. Mills, Statistical analysis of daily gold price data Physica A-statistical Mechanics and Its Applications. ,vol. 338, pp. 559- 566 ,(2004) , 10.1016/J.PHYSA.2004.03.003
William Dimovski, Robert Brooks, The underpricing of gold mining initial public offerings Research in International Business and Finance. ,vol. 22, pp. 1- 16 ,(2008) , 10.1016/J.RIBAF.2006.11.002
Tim Bollerslev, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity Journal of Econometrics. ,vol. 31, pp. 307- 327 ,(1986) , 10.1016/0304-4076(86)90063-1
David Hillier, Paul Draper, Robert Faff, Do Precious Metals Shine? An Investment Perspective Financial Analysts Journal. ,vol. 62, pp. 98- 106 ,(2006) , 10.2469/FAJ.V62.N2.4085
Edel Tully, Brian M. Lucey, A power GARCH examination of the gold market Research in International Business and Finance. ,vol. 21, pp. 316- 325 ,(2007) , 10.1016/J.RIBAF.2006.07.001
Carla Inclán, George C. Tiao, Use of Cumulative Sums of Squares for Retrospective Detection of Changes of Variance Journal of the American Statistical Association. ,vol. 89, pp. 913- 923 ,(1994) , 10.1080/01621459.1994.10476824
Søren Johansen, Rocco Mosconi, Bent Nielsen, Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend. Econometrics Journal. ,vol. 3, pp. 216- 249 ,(2000) , 10.1111/1368-423X.00047
David G McMillan, Alan E.H Speight, Non-ferrous metals price volatility: a component analysis Resources Policy. ,vol. 27, pp. 199- 207 ,(2001) , 10.1016/S0301-4207(01)00019-8