Increased outbreak frequency associated with changes in the dynamic behaviour of populations of two aphid species

摘要: Sudden changes in the variability of natural populations can result increased likelihood extinction or greater frequency and intensity pest outbreaks. These could be associated with some relevant population parameters such as equilibrium density maximum growth rate. However, these have very different consequences. An increase results a higher variance fluctuations according to relationship between mean described by Taylor's power law, but does not modify stability properties system. On other hand, rate induce dynamic regimes population. In this study, using statistical mathematical methods borrowed from econometrics engineering, we identify structural dynamics sycamore aphid Drepanosiphum platanoidis green spruce Elatobium abietinum UK. Some localities showed strong their parameters, that regime changed completely. expected outbreaks, which has enormous economic ecological Through study show application helpful wildlife managers task evaluating risk outbreaks animal under changing global environmental scenarios.