Past, present and future distributions of an Iberian Endemic, Lepus granatensis: ecological and evolutionary clues from species distribution models.

摘要: The application of species distribution models (SDMs) in ecology and conservation biology is increasing assuming an important role, mainly because they can be used to hindcast past predict current future distributions. However, the accuracy SDMs depends on quality data appropriate theoretical frameworks. In this study, comprehensive Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) were i) determine species’ ecogeographical constraints, ii) a climatic model for last glacial maximum (LGM), relating it inferences derived from molecular studies, iii) calibrate assess trends (up 2080). Our results showed that factor (in its pure effect when combined with land-cover factor) most descriptor hare. addition, model’s output was reliable index local probability occurrence, which valuable tool guide management decisions planning. Climatic potential obtained LGM suggest several refugia may have existed within major refugium. Finally, high occurrence range northward expansion predicted future. Given environmental envelope evolutionary history, we discuss macroecology sensitivity climate change.