Nuclear Superiority or the Balance of Resolve? Explaining Nuclear Crisis Outcomes

摘要: What determines the outcome of nuclear crises? Scholars have long debated whether superiority or balance resolve shapes probability victory in brinkmanship settings, but not clearly articulated possible mechanisms linking to victory, nor they systematically analyzed entire universe empirical cases. Using a new dataset on fifty-six crises that includes information arsenal size and resolve, this article analyzes determinants crises. I first describe two analytically distinct by which may improve state’s prospects for then show states enjoy over their opponents are more likely win This relationship holds even after controlling conventional military capabilities. Explanations conceive conflict as competition risk taking, therefore emphasize do find support data. presents explanation advantages comprehensive examination crisis outcomes.