Sectoral Productivity Trends:Convergence Islands in Oceans of Divergence

摘要: In their influential study on productivity growth at the sector-level, Bernard and Jones (1996, BJ) observed convergence of aggregate labor levels in 14 highly developed countries 1970-1987. They also found evidence that this could be attributed to services rather than manufacturing. The main question paper addresses is whether result can generalized a broader set countries. Several strands theory suggest thresholds with regard variety issues lead multiple regimes, which are likely very heterogeneous patterns divergence. To analyze this, we use econometric techniques explicitly allow for identification parameter heterogeneity (quantile regressions quantile smoothing splines), both initial conditions performance conditional these levels. BJ?s data extended several dimensions. recently sectoral dataset spans period 1970-2004 covers 49 countries, including many developing Overall, our findings as by BJ only applies limited groups country-sectors (?convergence islands?), whereas biggest parts sample spaces considered ?oceans divergence?.