A Swedish case study of contemporary and possible future consequences of climate change on lake function

摘要: A physical lake model was employed to obtain a basis of discussing the impact climate variability and change on ecology Lake Erken, Sweden. The validity this approach tested by running PROBE-lake for 30-year period (STD) with observed meteorological data. is adequately modelled, as seen in comparison actual observations. validated then forced data obtained from regional (RCM) horizontal resolution 44 km present (CLTR) 2 × CO2 (SCEN) conditions. CLTR simulation compares reasonably STD. Applying SCEN leads scenario lake. changes include elevated temperatures, shorter periods ice cover combined two ten years being totally ice-free, mixing regime. ecological consequences results are derived historical dataset Erken. Consequences warmer could imply increased nutrient cycling productivity. suggest that an application RCMs suitable lakes combination models allows projection responses future climate.