Evaluating REDD+ at subnational level: Amazon fund impacts in Alta Floresta, Brazil

摘要: Abstract The Amazon Fund is the world's largest program to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), funded with over US $1b donated by Norway Germany between 2008 2017 reward Brazil for prior reductions. Olhos D'Agua da Amazonia cited as a leading project success − one thousand small-to-medium-sized crop livestock producers in municipality of Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso State receiving more than all but two other municipalities. To secure property rights, aid environmental planning, raise farmers' productivity output diversity, helped farmers register Brazil's cadaster receive certificates. Furthermore, supported milk honey production paid conserve riverine sites. We estimate causal effects D'Agua, versus counterfactual what would have happened without project, using synthetic-control method. build pool blacklisted municipalities weighted averages (synthetic controls) that best match pre-treatment outcomes Floresta. Project are estimated post-treatment differences Floresta synthetic controls. find increased new CAR registrations, INCRA certifications, may moderately production. Floresta's annual losses remained historically low we no clear effect on rates. Our results support rigorous impact evaluation can motivate guide improvements.