Mathematical Modelling Long-Term Effects of Replacing Prevnar7 with Prevnar13 on Invasive Pneumococcal Diseases in England and Wales

摘要: England and Wales recently replaced the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) with its 13-valent equivalent (PCV13), partly based on projections from mathematical models of long-term impact such a switch compared to ceasing vaccination altogether. A compartmental deterministic model was used estimate parameters governing transmission infection competition between different groups serotypes prior introduction PCV13. The best-fitting were in an individual describe dynamics effects various options for programme change Wales. number scenarios conducted using (i) assumptions about invasive disease cases adjusted increasing trend incidence PCV7 Wales, (ii) range values representing serotype replacement induced by additional six Most considered suggest that use would cause increase incidence, while replacing PCV13 overall decrease. However, size this reduction largely depends level estimates over 20 years vaccination, around 5000–62000 IPD could be prevented stopping Despite inevitable uncertainty following PCV13, suggests all cases. Our results provide useful evidence benefits countries or considering as well data can evaluate cost-effectiveness switch.