Agriculture production's sensitivity to changes in climate in South Africa

摘要: South Africa in general has been approximately 2% hotter and at least 6% drier over the ten years between 1997 2006 compared to 1970s. The use of water also increased greatly this same period. By 2000, 98.6% that year’s surface yield 41% annual utilisable potential ground was allocated use. Irrigation agriculture, comprising 60% total consumption, is by far largest single consumer water. Given these climatic changes as a backdrop, we employed panel data econometric model estimate how sensitive nation’s agriculture may be rainfall. Net agricultural income provinces, contributing 10% or more production both field crops horticulture, likely negatively affected decline rainfall, especially rain-fed agriculture. For country whole, each 1% rainfall lead 1.1% maize (a summer grain) 0.5% winter wheat. These results are discussed with respect established emerging farmers, type should favoured phased out different parts country, view current projected trends climate, increasing use, declining availability.