Modeling current and future species distribution of breeding birds as regional essential biodiversity variables (SD EBVs): A bird perspective in Swiss Alps

摘要: Abstract Changes in distribution and abundance of species affect the entirety biodiversity monitoring these changes is critical for efficient conservation integrity functions population. However, acquiring accurate information on over large spatial scales poses a challenge since such data patchy incomplete, if not unavailable, many areas. This study aims at examining applicability novel approach based Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to develop predictions Essential Biodiversity variables (EBVs; be quantified certain points time space monitor variations biodiversity) birds bird diversity metrics as distributions properties key habitats. A major objective this build SDMs which can used derive EBVs regional scale. We predictors 16 environmental that are known ecologically meaningful birds, including two bioclimatic (Bio17 = precipitation driest quarter Bio7 = temperature annual range) three periods ‘current’, ‘future 2050′, 2070′, eleven land-cover (land use) predictors, normalized difference vegetation index, topographic (slope topography). multiple modeling techniques presence-only relating presence features each species. Here, we show suitability estimated according ‘species distribution’ EBV (SD EBV) reflect habitat quality trends land use climatic impacts populations These developments could facilitate across time, ultimately helping identify priority areas, estimate provide early warning signs regarding trends. In general, variables, topography forest structure were identified have important ties probability maps generated basis SDMs, signifying dominant role variable Bio17 development patterns.