Projecting global planted forest area developments and the associated impacts on global forest product markets

摘要: Planted forests are a rising share of total globally and an increasingly important source timber product output, affecting national global markets. We estimated econometric models planted forest area by OECD non-OECD country groups that control for economic, institutional environmental policies likely to influence future changes in area. The then used project over next 55 years 180 countries under five alternative scenarios socio-economic changes, represented shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), adjunct products emerging from the Fifth Assessment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). By embedding key features SSP projections into sector model, we evaluate how lead different market outcomes each SSP, compared corresponding where not considered separately. Projected 2070 ranges 379 million ha (Mha) SSP3 (a relatively poor unequal world) 475 Mha SSP5 wealthier more equal world), representing respective increases 46% 66% 2015. SSPs with highest have lowest prices (down 12% 2070, without forests) higher production consumption quantities (by as much 3.3% forests). However, does increase all similar amounts, due relative advantages brought about reduced prices.