Prediction of tracer plume migration in disordered porous media by the method of conditional probabilities

摘要: The purpose of this study is to develop a method for predicting the spatial moments and concentration tracer plume conditional locally measured data. author set in probabilistic frame due inherent inability characterize deterministically flow domain. starting point Dagan (1984) conceptual model which relates translocation tagged elements solute mass. Then, using Darcy's law equations, he describes that translation random function velocity. Comparison with numerical simulations shows be favorable variances log conductivity as large 2.56 (Dykstra-Parsons coefficient 0.8). It shown how correlated hydraulic head fields, furthermore, it can made concluded conditioning improves predictions by making more comprehensive use available data has potential range applications.