A combined water balance and tree ring approach to understanding the potential hydrologic effects of climate change in the central Rocky Mountain region

作者: Stephen T. Gray , Gregory J. McCabe

DOI: 10.1029/2008WR007650

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摘要: [1] Models suggest that average temperatures in the central Rocky Mountains will increase by >3°C over next century, while precipitation may remain within late Holocene boundaries. This study investigates potential hydrologic effects of such warming when combined with full range variability experienced past millennium. Using upper Yellowstone drainage as a test case, water balance model is constructed to estimate river discharge from and temperature inputs (r = 0.85 versus observed). The then was run using tree ring estimates for 1177–1910 1911–1995 A.D. (1) observed 1896–1995; (2) reconstructed Northern Hemisphere since 1177; or (3) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections 2025, 2050, 2100. Discharge generated driving served baseline comparisons other climate runoff scenarios. All combinations various scenarios pre-1911 resulted mean below gauge period baseline. Projected 2050 2100 produced lowest at 85% 76% baseline, respectively. Combining paleoprecipitation created numerous multidecadal periods <85% during these same droughts declined an additional 16–34% under 2025–2100 regimes. Likewise inherent adds large degree nonstationarity change responses seen estimates. While this scenario exercise does not provide precise forecasts future conditions, results 1°–3°C could have major negative availability Yellowstone. These also indicate twentieth-century observations paint incomplete potentially overly optimistic picture regional supplies.

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