A comparison of statistical and deterministic methods for shallow landslide susceptibility zoning in clayey soils

摘要: Abstract Shallow landslides are widespread in different geological contexts and generally occur as multiple events over large areas. When these phenomena involve fine-grained soils, they may cause serious consequences—in terms of environmental property damages—and thus their spatial forecasting becomes a relevant issue for land use planning design purposes. The existing literature provides several methods landslide susceptibility assessment, categorized qualitative quantitative methods. dealing with analyses at scale (1:5000), preferred. In this paper, maps produced study area prone to shallow landsliding, located Catanzaro (southern Italy). To aim, two implemented: the statistical “information value method” deterministic “TRIGRS model.” approaches compared by means indicators grade correctness maps: under curve ROC curve, AUC, overestimation index, OI. results AUC values demonstrate effectiveness consistency both performing mapping area. OI considered, provided model slightly better than ones resulting from analysis. This does not come surprise case hand it can be ascribed availability, within area, of: reliable database soil properties, an in-depth knowledge behaviour considered landslides.