Fine‐grain, large‐domain climate models based on climate station and comprehensive topographic information improve microrefugia detection

摘要: Large-domain species distribution models (SDMs) fail to identify microrefugia, as they are based on climate estimates that either too coarse or ignore relevant topographic climate-forcing factors. Climate station data considered inadequate produce such estimates, a viewpoint we challenge here. Using stations and data, developed three sets of large-domain (450 000 km²), fine-grain (50 m) temperature grids accounting for different levels complexity. Using these the Worldclim fitted SDMs 78 alpine over Sweden, assessed over- versus underestimations local extinction area microrefugia by comparing modelled distributions at species' rear edges. Accounting well-known factors improved our ability model fine-scale climate, despite using only data. This approach captured effect cool air pooling, distance sea, relative humidity local-scale temperature, but solar radiation could not be accurately accounted for. Predicted rate decreased with increasing spatial resolution number About half detected in most topographically complete were coarser calibrated from variables extracted elevation only. Although major limitations remain, can potentially used topoclimate grids, opening up opportunity ecological processes large domains. complexity encountered within landscapes permits detection would otherwise remain undetected. Topographic heterogeneity is likely have massive impact persistence, should included studies effects change.