Scenarios involving future climate and water extraction: ecosystem states in the estuary of Australia's largest river

摘要: Management of natural resources, particularly water, increasingly requires that likely benefits particular actions (e.g., allocating an environmental flow) are quantified in advance. Therefore, new techniques required enable those potential to be objectively compared among competing options for management a "do nothing" scenario). Scenario modeling is one method developing such objective comparison. We used existing hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem response models case study location, the Coorong, inverse estuary South Australia, illustrate scenario inform resource management. modeled set 12 scenarios included different levels water extraction, future climate change, sea-level thereby enabling comparison drivers possible reductions availability Coorong. discovered change combined with current extraction has capacity devastate ecology but also much degradation could averted by reducing upstream extractions water. The inclusion had surprising effect, whereby higher sea increased hydrodynamic connectivity between Coorong's two lagoons. Increased limited occurrence extremely low high salinities due evapoconcentration were simulated dry climates absence rise. These findings strongly suggest ecological Coorong not foregone conclusion, decisions regarding allocations will determine this coastal lagoon.