Projecting range-wide sun bear population trends using tree cover and camera-trap bycatch data.

摘要: Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most Southeast Asia. Previous estimates global have relied on expert opinion cannot systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun range to model the relationship between photo catch rates tree cover. were detected in all levels cover above 20%, probability presence was positively associated with amount 6-km2 buffer traps. used space infer temporal abundance response loss at country global-scales. Our model-based projections based this “space for time” substitution suggested declines 2000–2014 mainland southeast Asia ~9%, highest Cambodia lowest Myanmar. During same period, populations insular (Malaysia, Indonesia Brunei) projected declined much higher rate (22%). Cast forward 30-years, year 2000, by assuming constant change cover, we region surpassed 50%, meeting IUCN criteria endangered if listed level. Although approach several assumptions, notably trends, using remotely sensed may serve as useful alternative (or supplement) opinion. The advantages is it objective, data-driven, repeatable, assumptions clearly stated.