Projections of Future Drought in the Continental United States and Mexico

摘要: AbstractUsing the Palmer drought severity index, ability of 19 state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce observed statistics over North America is examined. It found that correction substantial biases in models’ surface air temperature and precipitation fields necessary. However, even after a bias correction, there are significant differences observations. Using metrics based on temporal spatial patterns drought, relationship between model performance simulating present-day characteristics their projections future changes investigated. all project increases frequency severity. using presented here increase confidence multimodel projection complicated by correlation metric skill sensitivity. The effect this sampling error can be remov...