Ensemble forecasting

作者: M. Leutbecher , T.N. Palmer

DOI: 10.1016/J.JCP.2007.02.014

关键词:

摘要: … , leads to forecast errors that grow with increasing forecast lead time. The growth of errors … as the linearisation is performed with respect to a solution of the nonlinear forecast model. …

参考文章(83)
Peter Lynch, The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling Journal of Computational Physics. ,vol. 227, pp. 3431- 3444 ,(2008) , 10.1016/J.JCP.2007.02.034
Tilmann Gneiting, Adrian E. Raftery, Anton H. Westveld, Tom Goldman, Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation Monthly Weather Review. ,vol. 133, pp. 1098- 1118 ,(2005) , 10.1175/MWR2904.1
M. M. Coutinho, B. J. Hoskins, R. Buizza, The Influence of Physical Processes on Extratropical Singular Vectors Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. ,vol. 61, pp. 195- 209 ,(2004) , 10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0195:TIOPPO>2.0.CO;2
P. L. Houtekamer, Louis Lefaivre, Jacques Derome, Harold Ritchie, Herschel L. Mitchell, A System Simulation Approach to Ensemble Prediction Monthly Weather Review. ,vol. 124, pp. 1225- 1242 ,(1996) , 10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<1225:ASSATE>2.0.CO;2
George Em Karniadakis, James Glimm, Preface: uncertainty quantification in simulation science Journal of Computational Physics. ,vol. 217, pp. 1- 4 ,(2006) , 10.1016/J.JCP.2006.06.009
Inger-Lise Frogner, Trond Iversen, Targeted ensemble prediction for northern Europe and parts of the north Atlantic Ocean Tellus A. ,vol. 53, pp. 35- 55 ,(2001) , 10.3402/TELLUSA.V53I1.12178
John M. Lewis, Roots of Ensemble Forecasting Monthly Weather Review. ,vol. 133, pp. 1865- 1885 ,(2005) , 10.1175/MWR2949.1
P. L. Houtekamer, Jacques Derome, Methods for Ensemble Prediction Monthly Weather Review. ,vol. 123, pp. 2181- 2196 ,(1995) , 10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2181:MFEP>2.0.CO;2
C. A. Reynolds, T. E. Rosmond, Nonlinear growth of singular-vector-based perturbations Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ,vol. 129, pp. 3059- 3078 ,(2003) , 10.1256/QJ.02.193
Clive Temperton, Mariano Hortal, Adrian Simmons, A two-time-level semi-Lagrangian global spectral model Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ,vol. 127, pp. 111- 127 ,(2001) , 10.1002/QJ.49712757107