Regional scale modelling of particulate matter in the UK, source attribution and an assessment of uncertainties

摘要: The models HARM and ELMO are used to investigate the importance of different source categories contributing total PM10 (SIA, SOA primary particulate matter) across UK impact uncertainties on both present day future concentration estimates. Modelled concentrations SIA (secondary inorganic aerosol) compared against data from UK's Nitric Acid Aerosol Network organic measurements made at Bush Estate, Edinburgh. These indicate that HARM/ELMO modelling approach comes close achieving mass closure. Comparison with national maps underestimate matter around large conurbations, probably due localised nature emissions particulates in these areas model scale. attribute size categories, assessing relative primaries, SOA; contributions anthropogenic biogenic precursors PMcoarse (PM10–PM2.5) PMfine (PM2.5) vs. other EMEP area sources. implications attributions for control policies discussed. sources explored. For this has been achieved through scaling using GLUE (Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) approach. selection acceptable parameter sets based need retain capability deposition S N species. uncertainty estimates is illustrated sites Network. A more limited assessment 2010 carried out scale, illustrating inclusion can change modelled no exceedance current air quality objectives, one over south east England.