Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

摘要: Global maps constructed using climate-change velocities to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches between 1960 and 2100 show past future shifts in ecological climate niches; properties of these are used infer changes species distributions, thus identify areas that will act as sources sinks, geographical barriers migrations. To survive a changing climate, may need move order stay an area with constant average temperature. Such mobility would depend on ability keep pace moving — the absence physical migration. These authors use velocity change construct global map how have shifted recent decades go predict distribution end this century. The indicates likely impede data connections mostly coasts profound effects expected organisms track their preferred climate. This work underlines importance migration corridors linking warmer cooler means maintaining biodiversity. reorganization patterns diversity driven by anthropogenic change, consequences humans1, not yet fully understood or appreciated2,3. Nevertheless, conditions useful predicting distributions at global4 local scales5. Here we change6,7 from 2009 (ref. 7) 2006 2100, distributions. Coastlines locally attractors trajectories, creating source sink conditions. Climate indicate where novel connected similar climates previously occurred, thereby inaccessible migrants tracking isotherms: 16% surface 2009, 34% ocean ‘business usual’ scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5)8 representing continued fossil fuels without mitigation. disappear, potentially blocking movement migrants. Sink comprise 1.0% 3.6% land prevalent high ground. Using approach gives regional direction rate migrants, suggests potential loss richness.